All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

ctyankee

NanoSolar and their breakthrough $1/W solar panels... Yet the company is hush-hush on the topic.

They claim that the first years' production is spoken for and that the waiting list is getting longer.

I have to admit that if the claims are true, then I have a problem; the world would benefit but my company would be left out in the cold... Actually we wouldn't! Smiling

Several pundits have asked: "If this is really happening, where's the media, the press, the excitement?". So I'll ask the same question.

I've already gone on record saying that thin-film solar would be a wonderful alternative to both single & polycrystalline technologies. The durability if thin film is still problematic, and apparently the installation costs for even the cheapest (i.e. free) PV material are still high enough to price the system out of the affordability band.

I look at it this way. If I had ordered a crystalline PV system and had a contract for $8/W, and I heard this news... I'd have my lawyer on the phone cancelling the $8 contract in a New York minute.

What seems to have happened is that we might be looking at a new price point in 2009-2010 of $7/W, which is definitely better, but nothing to write home about.

Why $7 you ask?

Well: 1 x $5 + 1 x $3 = $8 -- that's 1 Watt area of 15% Silicon and 1 area installed

But: 1 x $1 + 2 x $3 = $7 -- still 1 Watt area of 7.5% CIGS but at twice the area installed

No one is claiming that CIGS (thin film) is 7.5% efficient... it's a company secret, but 6% would have been a breakthrough and reported in the scientific journals... Maybe I missed it.

Look, I don't want to stifle innovation, I think $1/W solar would be a great benefit to society, but I'm still keeping my skeptics hat on for this one.

I hope someone will chime in on the discussion!



ctyankee
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

I was saying the Evergreen was punished by crummy stock market practices, having absolutely nothing tho do wit the company or it's products; the fact that they survived it says just the opposite.

The practice of selling "Naked Shorts" is equivalent to printing counterfeit stock certificates, and was done by outsiders who saw an undervalued company.  More's the pity!  The investors & founders were robbed of millions of $$$ of equity.  I actually had some shares that I bought for under $2, but I needed the cash and had to sell them Sad

String Ribbon(tm) is still a "poly-crystalline" system.  One that is marvelously frugal in the amount of silicon if consumes.  But being poly-Si, it still achieves efficiency in the 15% range.  That's why I like it.

 --------- 

 This post was primarily about Nano solar.  They've been getting *huge* press for announcing $1/W based on "thin film" CIGS technology. 

Last week I found the reference to German paper from last July that actually mentioned 6.7% efficiency ( I had estimated 7.5% or half of silicon cells.  And I had thought I remembered the 6% figure, so I suppose they did make a minor breakthrough )

So as Chris (athena) mentioned it's not quite so bad as a football field, but it's still on the order of 2x the area for the same output as a Si counterpart.  So paralleling the bromide "It's not the heat, it's the humidity.", I'll say:  "It's not the panels, it's the installation" that'll get you.

Anyway, we'll see what happens.  The fact that I've not heard of a single silicon contract being cancelled since the announcement kinda indicates that I'm not alone in my belief. 



jstack6
jstack6's picture
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

Evergreen solar is very new. They have become profitable well before they were projected to make a profit. The price will keep climbing. Their panels work better than rated. I know of have some and check them.

You said,  I think my 1st or 2nd post was about Evergreen.  Their String-Ribbon is a real advancement in the industry.  My comment was mostly how unfair practices in the stock market were punishing the company.  I thing their product is very innovative. ,end of your quote.

  I say, Their stock is up very well this year.  From $7 to over $17 this year for over a 100% increase. . Next year I feel will be even more stunning. I own the panels and some stock.

 

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the solar stacks

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solar stacks



jstack6
jstack6's picture
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

there are very good thin film solar panels. I have some made by Evergreen solar and they are super with a 25 year warrenty. ESLR , their stock is very good.

Also look at Fisrt Solar, they make thin film panels with no silicon, they use waste zinc mining cadmium. They stock FSLR has gone from $10 to over 276 when I checked today.

nano solar is coming, it's a private company. It will take years to get up to speed and produce a lot of long lasting panels but it is happening.

Just like PC's and other high tech it will be step by step with more and better each year. No quick over night Billions. Just steady clean green growth, like a tree or plants.

 

the solar stacks

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solar stacks



ctyankee
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

I think my 1st or 2nd post was about Evergreen.  Their String-Ribbon is a real advancement in the industry.  My comment was mostly how unfair practices in the stock market were punishing the company.  I thing their product is very innovative.

This comment was about nanosolar, and CIGS technology.  I'm not questioning whether or not their technology works, I'm just pointing out that there is more spin in their announcement than there is in the Iranian gas centrifuges.

I have to admit that they might be onto something, but between the install costs and the lifetime issues, I'm not going to give up on traditional silicon pv.

And until someone demonstrates a $2/W electrical install, I'm still betting on CSP to take the checkered flag.

The Light is Green! 



ctyankee
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

That's absolutely what I'm saying!

Using the example above even if the solar material was $0/W the cost is still $6/W installed.  It's classic marketing, it's lousy engineering.

That's why my company focused st strongly on the total system.  Our panels still cost a few $ per sq ft, but a 170 sq ft panel goes up in minutes, not hours, so our install costs arent $3/W they're more like $0.15/watt to hang a panel.

And yes, total efficiency is critically important.  Back in '87 we developed a 2% efficient thin film, and it was as cheap as plastic trash bags... But the cost to install, and the short lifetime doomed it to the round file.

 



Jeff Schultz
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

CTYankee, Do you know anything about this technology? If so any opinions?

http://www.inl.gov/featurestories/2007-12-17.shtml



ctyankee
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

Hey Jeff,  

  Yeah, I know a little.  I think it's destined to become the "Presto Rapid Hot Dog Cooker" of energy harvesting.  It may leave a mark upon the industry, but fall a little shy of that competing kitchen appliance -- the microwave oven.

  It's an array of resonant circuits.  In physics, when discussing the nature of the interaction of EM waves with  matter, we analyze the the propagation of light through clean things like glass, by imagining with radio waves interacting with an array of antennas or resonators.  Then we can apply the knowledge we have of the electric wave or photon in the "infinite" matrix.

  While it's certainly possible to produce these arrays with the characteristics needed to be anywhere from transparent to opaque, transmissive to absorptive, the problem still exists on how to rectify the oscillating EM field into useful DC voltage.  

  There are difficulties when trying to extract useful work out of a field oscillating at optical frequencies (10^14Hz)  The losses, proportional to  f^2 * C cause the matrix to dissipate energy as heat, just like you'd expect from a sheet of dark material exposed to sunlight.

  I think it's really cool that the lab has succeeded in replicating such large areas of such tiny structures...  I'm not going to bank on the technology being the next commercial "ceramic magnetron". 

  Nature has provided many natural "structures" that absorb quanta of EM and dislodge electrons.  We call them solar cells.  And while the QM efficiency is close to 100%, the net result in the real world never can be.

  It's not just a matter of making a faster diode ;-)  But separating the "charge" induced on the circuit.  The silicon crystals accomplish this in the PN junction.  The electrons come off the matrix having been lifted across the energy gap, by absorbing the energy proportional to h*f. The antennas do it through phase shifting * coherence effects.  Perhaps they've figured out a way to curb the losses, and suppress tunneling? I don't know, anything is possible, but the quantum world is a strange place!

  Maxwell's Daemon has evaded capture for more than 2 centuries that we've been trying to get him.  Astronomers tell us the daemon has had 15 billion years to perfect his craft...



Jeff Schultz
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

Wow, I asked for a sandwich. Lobster Bisque and you threw in drinks and dessert. Thanks man.



athena
Re: All week long (mid dec 2007) I've been hearing about...

ctyankee           I'm terrible with numbers.......Are you saying that low cost for each watt produced means nothing if you need a surface the size of a football field to run a wallclock?