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Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: jstack6 (9 replies) Tue, 08/07/2007 - 16:42
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: ctyankee (04/24/2008 - 08:01)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: athena (04/19/2008 - 19:57)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: jstack6 (01/16/2008 - 12:58)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: ctyankee (01/16/2008 - 13:27)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: jstack6 (12/05/2007 - 21:55)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: ctyankee (12/06/2007 - 12:45)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: ctyankee (12/05/2007 - 14:50)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: jstack6 (11/24/2007 - 21:45)
- Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ? By: jstack6 (08/17/2007 - 22:12)
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Re: Peak Oil- this says the world peaked-What do you think ?
I still think it's too hard to say. I do agree that we may be close, but the only way to know for sure is to wait for the peak to pass and then look back at the data and say: "There, that's the day. Do you remember where you were?"
It's hard to argue that increased Chinese consumption is going to have any effect in pushing the peak out, but in a strange way it can have that effect.
By increasing demand they increase price, that should spur new exploration, and a re-evaluation of known reserves. It's possible that either existing reserves that are not "economical" at $40 will become so at $140... - or, massive new reserves will be discovered in the aftermath, as a consequence of searching for $150/bbl oil... thereby extending the day of reckoning.
There's just no possible way to sustain the increase in demand for the long term... Something's gotta give. The model must break down. S/D will take over. I think I can confidently say that I could deliver unlimited quantities of crude at $500/bbl adjusted for inflation forever, but who would but it?
Either way, there's still a lot to be said for conservation, renewable, and solar energy!
I think it's a good idea to point out the phenomenon, but impossible to try to pin it down with any certainty.