Solar Panels Cost of Ownership

Hey Chris,

  I city... gee... could save millions... it's just a matter of scale.  These are just back of the envelope numbers. 

  Ottawa is at ~50 deg north lat.  That means that on average each m^2 of panel would capture almost 3kWh of total heat in a day (~950 BTU/sq ft/day), and we could only rate your panels at about 650W / m^2 -- these are the thermal numbers.

  If you take the thermal to electric conversion at the PV equivalent of say 15% then you need to know the consumption to compute the area under panel required.

  Google put your temp at -11F this am and that's where our system can best PV hands down.  85% of the total heat we collect is rejected.  We can dump a good portion of that heat into a building for just the cost of the heat exchanger, with very little degradation of electrical output.  It's another term you may know, "CHP" or Combined Heat & Power.

  In the sun belt the thought of using the waste heat almost never comes up... but in the northern climes that warmth can be put to good use.  

  BTW the wind is bringing your -23C air right down my neck today :-O   There's a low to the NE and high to the SW.  Brrr!!!

confusion:

The price of a system is quoted in $/Watt; that's a capital cost for the hardware. Your system is rated at 2500W and you spent $12,500 or $4.80/Watt.  That's less than the retail price of an installed system, that's why I concluded that you did some of the work yourselves.  Kudos!

The price for energy is quoted in $/kWh; that's got a time component.  A system can generate only a finite amount of energy over its 'quoted' 20 year lifetime.  That lets us compute a projected cost of energy for a fixed period of time.

If your system makes 10kWh per day (2500W times 4 hours) times 365 days per year for 20 years then it will have generated 73,000 kWh.  Divide the $12,500 by the 73,000 kWh and you get $0.171/kWh...  That's your cost of energy for 20 years.  Seventeen cents per kilowatt hour...

The good news is that 20 years from the date you installed the system you'll still be "paying" the same price for your electricity.  Who knows what your neighbors will be paying?  Maybe .35, .40,  a $1.00 per kWh...

Now the whole ROI thing gets really complicated because everyone has a different situation; taxes, incentives, rebates, availability of capital, lifestyle, expected inflation, yada yada yada.  That's why I look at the "worst case" for my own product line.

And I have mentioned we're doing concentrating solar-thermal electric power.  I haven't named the company, only the process.  It's a scaled down version of the Solar-One, SEGS, and Saguaro type of facilities in the Nevada desert.  Parabolic troughs collect/concentrate sunlight, makes steam, turns a generator, makes electricity.

We're focusing our attention on commercial buildings, I want to do residential but the reality is it's hard to be cost effective on a system that small.  Each trough is 20+ feet long, and one bi-panel covers ~320 sq ft. 

Our target price is $3/W installed for systems in the 50kW to 500kW range.  If you do the same math as I did above that works out to $0.102/kWh

$600,000 /  ( 200kW * 4hr/d * 365d/y * 20yr) = 0.10273$/kWh (a dime)

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For a $6B nuke generating 600MW for 40 years the raw cost of energy based on capital equipment is:

  6B$ / 600MW * 24h * 365d/y * 40yr =  $0.0285$/kWh (less than 3 cents)

 Naturally the O&M is higher, and there is fuel & cleanup to consider... but I'm trying to keep it apples to apples.

This as the other huge part of the confusion.  A coal plant costs even less to build, but considerably more to operate.  So much more that most of the price of coal electricity is the cost of the coal.

You have to believe me when I say I'm all for solar power, and If I had the means, I'd give my right arm to remove coal & oil burners and replace them with solar, but the money people just won't swallow that pill.  The other issue is that solar operates 4 maybe 6 hours per day... Storage is still way too expensive.

One more piece of bad news... My computations for solar are considered too optimistic by some.  Go to the SolarBuzz website and look at their comprehensive estimates for the cost of solar electricity...  It's enough to make you cry, $0.40, $0.50 or more / kWh...

The only negative light I'm trying to cast is that the investor community is mostly stuck in neutral when it comes to looking at the long term picture.  They want to know the here and now, they want to make their profit and get out.  The look you in the eye and say:  "I could take the money I'd spend on your system, put it in the bank, and pay the electric bill forever."  And in the current economic climate they are correct... shortsighted, but correct.

We both know better! I'm trying to get folks outside of the green community to notice that there is some real benefit to thinking long term.

Whether you like the nuclear issue or not, the economics favor it.  Could the subsidies be better applied? I think so!  The law says the utilities don't have to figure  in the cost of 10,000 years of storage for nuclear waste so they don't do it.

There is so much to be done, and economics are the driving force.

jstack6,

Did I say something to offend you? I think what you are doing is a great thing... If you've got some axe to grind with the nuclear, coal and natural gas industries... well, I suppose this is the place to vent your spleen.

This is an open forum, and I could have come in here like "Mark" whatsisname, trying to con the ignorant and desperate out of their hard earned dollars on some foolish pipe dream!

I tried to be a little more respectful by not being a walking-talking billboard.

You've obviously got some issues with decisions made 40+ years ago.  I think I agree with you, I simply stated some simple facts about what the costs are today, in real 2007 dollars.

My hat is off to you!

  Clearly you've done more that a dozen ordinary folks, probably more!  You've made a decision to sacrifice, and I just can't think of a higher compliment.

  I didn't mean to impugn your generosity, only to point out that it would be impossible for you to subsidize the almost unlimited demand for energy systems at $4.80/Watt...  You could help neighbors, friends, etc. but you wouldn't be able to created a sustainable business.

  You could offer up your entire accumulated wealth & resources and be sucked dry by those folks that only care about what the world owes them.

   Sorry, I don't know what a "block" of renewable energy referred to...  The negotiable and traded unit of Renewable Energy Credit aka "Green Tags" or "SREC" refer to a Megawatt-Hour and typically trade in the $200 range.

  If you're buying 8 of those per month, then the financial savings of your 2500W solar panel are clearly irrelevant when compared to your dedication  to do what is right! 

  Unfortunately very few people have the means to budget $20,000/year to environmental causes, for causes' sake.  My goal is to make available a system that will enable regular folks to achieve the benefits of clean solar energy, and put a little $$$ in their pocket each month.

Hi there solar stacks,

I hope you didn't misunderstand my point. First, I think that what you're doing is wonderful. You've clearly made a conscious decision to change your behavior and have shown the courage to stick to your convictions.

Unfortunately, most folks aren't like that. They make a New Years' Resolution, and by Jan 15 it's same-ol' same old habits.

Without getting too morbid, the miner death will be caught up to by guys falling off roofs, or being crushed by an improperly mounted array... It's just part of the equation.

Coal pollutes! You're 100% correct. PV factories require huge volumes of Chlorine, Phosphine, Silanes, water, heat, etc... Less to be sure, but look at the ratios.

Nuclear power *might * cost more to build today, what with all the insane regulations on the industry... However as one who keeps an eye on the rates, $35-$38 per megawatt-hour ($0.035-$0.038/kWh) is the going rate.

It's also very confusing when it comes to quoting a "money per energy" ratio. The lifetime of most plants is quoted as 25 years. The planners knew
that the plants would need to go 40years to make a profit. So if you're
patient a huge front load isn't a problem, Every US nuke has been paid
for... That's why the current energy cost is so low. We've sat on our
nuclear hands for 25 years...How stupid is that?

The 15 fold difference you're citing is what I call a fear-factor talking point. The only reason that number comes up is because building a reactor today has become the moral equivalent of... well you get my drift.

Back to the good stuff. In 2001 you were able to buy/build a 2500W system for $4.80/W Again, that's cool. But you were dedicated & committed to the goal. How many of your friends & neighbors were astonished by your dedication? (that's still a good thing) I'm still willing to bet you subsidised the cost by doing a lot of the labor yourselves.

The other thing you did which is probably the greater contributor to success was to make your home passively efficient. No BTU is cheaper than the one you conserve.

I'm here to plug my business... in a gradual sort of way. Eventually I'll even get around to telling folks the name of the company... But in the mean time, I'm here to build a little credibility, to see who's out there and what they've done, to smash a few myths too. I need to find out the spectrum of attitudes and commitment out there. It's easy to preach to the choir, but not very productive.

I see the challenges to the economy as the forces that will ultimately determine who we as a society do. People are creatures of habit. The only way I'm going to appeal to them is to offer a device that's set-it and forget-it reliable. I also have to be very conscious of the prices & costs.

When most people hear that a new coal plant will save them or cost them their first reaction is... anybody... NIMBY!

They don't care if their electric rate goes from $150 to $350... They whine and they pay it. In six months they've forgotten it was $150. There's my battlefield, that's who I'm fighting... That's who I'm fighting for? Too?

Anyway, I'm certain what you've accomplished is something you're proud of, and you should be. You've clearly beat the curve in most aspects. But let me ask you this. Could you or would you do what you did for a stranger for what you spent? I'm certain we both know the answer to that.

Don't get me wrong. I still want to do the right thing. There are enough SOB out there who will do of say anything to make a dime... I'm not one of them. I designed a system to be environmentally friendly, easy to use, clean, zero emission, long lived.

The Light is Green!